2016 Monsoon Contest

I have decided to continue the Monsoon Prediction Contest for at least
another year. Even though the National Weather Service (NWS) declares
June 15th to be the official start of the Monsoon season, the true
start of monsoon level precipitation in this area can be extremely
variable. It typically starts sometime in late June or early July and
extends into September. There are numerous criteria for what
constitutes the start of the monsoon season but my experience has
shown that a pretty sizable shot of moisture over a 1 or 2 day period
is needed for the C4 vegetation on the Sevilleta to show much of a
response. Therefore, I have set the criteria for the start of the
Monsoons on the Sevilleta as the day that we record 20 mm (0.79) of
precipitation in one of my 13 precipitation gauges on the Sevilleta in
a 24 hr period.

So your job as a contestant is to predict that magic date... and time.
This is done by picking the time of the first tip on any of my 13
Sevilleta precipitation gauges from a storm which subsequently drops
at least 20 mm (0.79) of precipitation in that gauge in the
subsequent 24 hours. Below are the official rules for the contest.

Official Monsoon Contest Rules

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Please send the DATE and TIME (hour and even minutes) of the start of
the first monsoon-storm of the summer.  Please e-mail this prediction to
the address at the bottom of this report.  Predictions must be time
stamped by midnight June 26th or 72 hrs before the occurrence of a
qualifying storm - which ever comes first.

Earliest or latest submitted predictions do not win if they are not
within 72 hours of the qualifying storm.  Pessimistic "no monsoons"
predictions are not allowed.

Reminder - give a time as well as the day - guesses with no time
will be arbitrarily given 12 noon of the day selected as the default
time. Hint: most convective storms don't start at noon.

This contest is open to anybody within the sound of this email....
whether original or forwarded.

Predictions will be posted on Sev home page after the June 26th deadline.

Previous winners of the Monsoon Contest with their predictions:

Year    Date      Time           Winner
--------------------------------------------------------
1998    July 1   4:09 PM         Luis Guzman
1999    July 3   8:06 PM         Mike Marshall
2000    July 15  5:00 PM         Mariel Campbell 
2001    July 21  5:45 PM         John Craig
2002    July 15  10:24 PM        Jeff Klopatek 
2003*   July 21  6:10 PM         John Craig
2004    June 28  6:15 PM         Chuck Buxbaum
2005**  August 6 7:29 PM         Seth Munson
2006    June 26  8:43 PM         Julie Coonrod
2007    June 18  6.12 PM         Tamara Hochstrasser
2008    July 18  2:00 PM         Michell Thomey
2009    June 28  4:30 PM         Albert Davila
2010    June 27  7:49 PM         Will Pockman
2011    July 27  3:30 PM         Tze Yang
2012    July 5   4:30 PM         Stephanie Baker  
2013    July 3   3:08 AM	 Chuck Hayes
2014+   July 23  3:13 PM         Seth Munson
2015    July 29  6:00 PM         Anny Chung
--------------------------------------------------------
* No true monsoon but closest to largest event of the season.
** Computer generated guess - don't ask
+ Monsoon did not really start til July 29th

D.M.

dmoore@sevilleta.unm.edu

Article Section: