June 2016 Met Central - Hot But Not at the Usual Hot Time

June was hot?
Yes, but June was not hot during the period that it is
usually hot. Daily high temperatures for the last week of June all
ran below normal for those days and way below daily record high
temperatures. In any case, from a much cooler than normal May we went
quickly into a decidedly warmer than normal June. The daytime high
temperatures soared above average earlier than normal for June and
then peaked out during a 6-day period mid-month when temperatures
popped over 100 F on 5 of of those days. Moisture pumped into the
region on the 20th produced a pretty quick drop in temperatures. The
cooler end of the month prevented us from having a record hot June.
Two new daily high temperature records were set during the month with
the hottest day, Jun 23, finally pushing that record over the century
mark after 27 years. Now the only June days with daily high records
lass than the century mark are June 2 and 3.

    June Record Temperatures - High 43.0 (109.4 F), Low 0.4 (18.5 F)
    June '16 Record Temperatures - High 39.5 (103.1 F), Low 4.8 (44.8 F)

Despite predictions to the contrary there initially seemed to be some
indication that we might see an early start to the monsoons when a few
convective storms hit on and around the Sev during the first week of
the month. The Field Station actually got over 16 mm or rain on June
5th. However a large high pressure system moved in and parked over
much of the southwest pushing temperatures to record highs for an
extended period. Storms got going again on the 23 with the 26th
providing a reasonable amount of rain on the east side of the refuge.
This figure shows the distribution of days with precipitation on the
Sevilleta during June as compared with the maximum precipitation at
any of the Sevilleta gauges during 1989-present period.

June Meteorological Summary

                       June           June '16           June '16
Variable             Long-term* Mean    Mean           Mean Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Max Temp (C)         33.09          34.1          31.4 - 35.0
Mean Min Temp (C)         15.23          16.4          14.5 - 18.1
Mean Average Temp (C)     24.16          25.2          23.1 - 26.5
Mean R.H. (%)             23.9           27.9          26.6 - 32.7
Mean Vap Press. (mb)       6.63           8.30         8.24 - 8.48
Mean Max Wind (m/sec)     11.9           11.3           9.5 - 11.8
Mean Solar Rad. (kWh/m2)   8.17           8.26         7.78 - 8.82
Precip.(mm)               14.7            9.8           5.9 - 16.8
---------------------------------------------------------------------
*Long-term refers to all of the Sevilleta met stations for 1989-2015

Albuquerque - Sevilleta Comparison

For yet another month Albuquerque's official weather station missed
out on most of the storms. To date Albuquerque has gotten less than
half of its expected total. The Sevilleta has done better at keeping
up with expected so far this year.

               Loc         Precip          Normal         % of Normal
=====================================================================
June		ABQ	    4.1 mm	   12.7 mm	      32 % 
		SEV 	    9.8 mm	   14.7 mm	      67 %

Year to Date    ABQ        34.4 mm         77.2 mm            45 %
                SEV        62.0 mm         68.5 mm            91 %
=====================================================================
Remember to check National Weather Service Monthly highlights at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/climate/Monthlyreports/June/JUN2016/June2016.htm

Water-year Precipitation

The water-year precipitation is now running at almost 125% of
average.

     Water Year Precipitation (mm)

               1989-2015
Month           Mean            2015-2016    
===========================================
Oct             23.2              53.5       
Nov             11.1               9.0
Dec		14.1		  20.0
Jan		 8.0		   8.2
Feb		 7.8		   2.0
Mar		13.4		   0.0
May		13.0		  22.4
Jun		14.7		   9.8
===========================================
               116.9		 144.5 
     

Drought

Surprisingly the area of New Mexico that the U.S. Drought Monitor
considered as being under drought status went down during June even
though there did not seem to be that much rain during the month. This
resulted in the Sevilleta going from moderate drought status back
in May to just abnormally dry at the end of June.

El Nino

La Nina, here we come. This will be more important for the upcoming
fall-winter-spring period than for this monsoon season altho
historically monsoons following super El Ninos have not been
impressive. The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly for the key 3.4 Nino
zone dropped from +0.8 to -0.1 C. The Ocean Nino Index (ONI)continues
to drop quickly with the April/May/Jun coming in ay +0.7.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continued in the La Nina
direction as well with June running +0.6.

Notables from on and off the Sev

Some parts of the refuge look better than others. In particular the
northern portion of McKenzie Flats is decidedly greener than further
south as this area got more of the late June moisture.

During the hot dry spell mid-month a fire sparked off in The Manzano
Mountains. The Dog-head fire burned almost 18,000 acres, consumed at
least 12 homes and threatened many more in and around the town of
Chilili.

West Virginia became the center of deadly floods during June.

Hurricanes

The Atlantic hurricane season continues to race ahead of its normal
pace. After having 1 hurricane and 1 tropical storm prior to the
official start of the hurricane season, there were 2 more named
tropical storms during June. Tropical Storm Colin started virtually
on the Yucatan Peninsula, crossed the Gulf of Mexico and tracked
across northern FL and southeast GA made lots of rain. Tropical Storm
Danielle came ashore on the east coast of Mexico.

July Forecast

Not very optimistic. Moisture prediction for July is contradictory
with one model predicting increased chances of above average
precipitation for part of western NM while another is forecasting
drier than normal for the entire. Temperatures, on the other hand are
predicted to run above average for July.

D.M

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