2017 Monsoon Prediction Contest

2017 Monsoon Contest - 20th Annual

Back by popular demand(?) is the 20th annual Monsoon prediction
contest. Even though the National Weather Service (NWS) declares June
15th to be the start of the Monsoon season, the true start of monsoon
level precipitation in this area can be extremely variable. It
typically begins sometime in late June or early July and extends into
September. There are numerous criteria for what constitutes the start
of the monsoon season but my experience has shown that a pretty
sizable shot of moisture over a 1 or 2 day period is needed for the C4
vegetation on the Sevilleta to show much of a response. Therefore, I
have set the criteria for the start of the Monsoons on the Sevilleta
as the day that we record 20 mm (0.79") of precipitation in one of my
10 precipitation gauges on the Sevilleta in a 24 hr period.

So your job as a contestant is to predict that magic date... and time.
This is done by picking the time of the first tip on any of 10
official Sevilleta precipitation gauges from a storm which
subsequently drops at least 20 mm (0.79") of precipitation in that
gauge in the subsequent 24 hours. Below are the official rules for
the contest.

Note 1 Even tho the monsoons have started as early as June 18th, the
last 3 years they have started on July 29th (2014 and 2015) or July 30
(2016)... so late guesses may not be such a bad idea.

Note 2: As usual, valuable prizes will be awarded to the three
closest predictions.

Official Monsoon Contest Rules
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Please send the DATE and TIME (hour and even minutes) of the start of
the first monsoon-storm of the summer.  Please e-mail this prediction to
the address at the bottom of this report.  Predictions must be time
stamped by midnight June 29th or 72 hrs before the occurrence of a
qualifying storm - which ever comes first.

Earliest or latest submitted predictions do not win if they are not
within 72 hours of the qualifying storm.  Pessimistic "no monsoons"
predictions are not allowed.

Reminder - give a time as well as the day - guesses with no time
will be arbitrarily given 12 noon of the day selected as the default
time. Hint: most convective storms don't start at noon.

This contest is open to anybody within the sound of this email....
whether original or forwarded.

Predictions will be posted on Sev home page after the June 29th deadline.

Previous winners of the Monsoon Contest with their predictions:

Year    Date      Time           Winner
--------------------------------------------------------
1998    July 1   4:09 PM         Luis Guzman
1999    July 3   8:06 PM         Mike Marshall
2000    July 15  5:00 PM         Mariel Campbell 
2001    July 21  5:45 PM         John Craig
2002    July 15  10:24 PM        Jeff Klopatek 
2003*   July 21  6:10 PM         John Craig
2004    June 28  6:15 PM         Chuck Buxbaum
2005**  August 6 7:29 PM         Seth Munson
2006    June 26  8:43 PM         Julie Coonrod
2007    June 18  6.12 PM         Tamara Hochstrasser
2008    July 18  2:00 PM         Michell Thomey
2009    June 28  4:30 PM         Albert Davila
2010    June 27  7:49 PM         Will Pockman
2011    July 27  3:30 PM         Tze Yang
2012    July 5   4:30 PM         Stephanie Baker  
2013    July 3   3:08 AM	 Chuck Hayes
2014+   July 23  3:13 PM         Seth Munson
2015    July 15  6:00 PM         Anny Chung
2016    July 27  7:44 PM	 Richard Cripps
--------------------------------------------------------
* No true monsoon but closest to largest event of the season.
** Computer generated guess - don't ask
+ Monsoon did not really start til July 29th

D.M.
dimoore@unm.edu

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