July 2017 Met Central - Good Wet July


July turned out to be a relatively average month in regards to both
temperature and precipitation
. Temperatures during the first 2 weeks
of the month mostly ran above normal for daytime high temperatures but then the last
portion of the month ran only slightly warmer or slightly cooler for the entire period.
Average day time high temperatures ran almost 1 degree F higher than normal but average night
time lows ran almost exactly average. There were 2 days with 100+ temperatures somewhere
on the refuge early in the month.

    July Record Temperatures - High 41.4 (106.5 F), Low 5.3 (41.5 F)
    July '17 Record Temperatures - High 38.5 (101.1 F), Low 11.5 (52.7 F)

July precipitation can be some the most erratic in terms of both time
and space. This July pecipitation on the refuge was generally typical
of a true summer monsoon pattern. There were storms on the refuge on
22 days during July with some very large storms around the refuge but
no wide-spread event that hit all of the refuge at the same time

The 56.8 mm refuge-wide average input for July was the wettest month
on the Sevilleta since Sep of 2014 and the wettest July since 2013
when the July total was 97.5 mm.

Overall the east side of the refuge did better than the west side.

July Meteorological Summary

                     July         July '17          July '17
Variable             Long-term* Mean    Mean           Mean Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Max Temp (C)         33.26           33.6         31.2 - 34.7
Mean Min Temp (C)         17.51           17.5         15.1 - 18.6
Mean Average Temp (C)     25.39           25.6         23.1 - 26.6
Mean R.H. (%)             40.8            43.4         41.6 - 46.2
Mean Vap Press. (mb)      11.61           12.70       11.75 - 13.17
Mean Max Wind (m/sec)     11.0            10.9          8.8 - 11.5
Mean Solar Rad. (kWh/m2)   7.30            7.69        6.59 - 8.47
Precip.(mm)                44.8           56.8         40.4 - 74.5
---------------------------------------------------------------------
*Long-term refers to all of the Sevilleta met stations for 1989-2016

Albuquerque - Sevilleta Comparison

The Albuquerque airport gauge did not fare as well as the Sevilleta
nor as well as many other parts of the Albuquerque Metropolitan area.
Some parts of ABQ got over 2.00" from a single storm.

               Loc         Precip          Normal         % of Normal
=====================================================================
July      	ABQ       21.6 mm         38.1 mm            57 %
                SEV       56.8 mm         44.8 mm           127 %

Year to Date    ABQ        98.1 mm        119.4 mm            82 %
                SEV       132.4 mm        112.9 mm           117 %
=====================================================================
Remember to check National Weather Service Monthly highlights at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/climate/Monthlyreports/July/MAR2017/July2017.htm

Water-year Precipitation

This above-average July really adds to the water year total.
Sevilleta is running at 131 % of average for the water-year to date.
This would give us a good chance of having an above average water-year
for the first time since 2009-10.


     Water Year Precipitation (mm)

               1989-2015
Month           Mean            2016-2017    
===========================================
Oct             22.2               5.1       
Nov             11.2              45.1
Dec		14.1		  23.1
Jan              8.0		  33.9
Feb 		 7.5		  10.0
Mar		12.9		   9.4
Apr		11.9		  15.8
May		13.3		   8.0
Jun		14.5		   4.4
Jul		44.8		  56.8
===========================================
               160.4		  211.6  


Drought


The U.S. Drought Monitor
shows almost no areas of drought in NM at
the end of July

ENSO

Looks like the ENSO cycle is going to remain in the medial zone for
the near future. The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly for the key 3.4
Nino zone dropped precipitously during July and is now at 0.0. The
Ocean Nino Index (ONI) for the May-Jun-Jul period was +0.3

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continues to oscillate going from
-0.4 in June to 0.8 in July. The 5-month running mean holds steady at
+0.22.

August Forecast

August is predicted to be cooler than normal for the eastern part of
the state. Above average precipitation is predicted for theentire
state with the southeastern corner of the state expecting the most

D.M.

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