October 2017 Met Central - Warm and Dry Start to New Water Year

October at the Sev was certainly warmer and generally drier than
normal. Daytime highs saw over 2/3 of the days running warmer than
normal across the refuge. Many days had a met station with a daytime
high well into the 80's. Oct. 6 had a daily maximum temperature of 88
F, setting a new daily high temperature record. Overall,the daily
daytime average highs ran about 2.3 degrees F warmer that normal.
Night time lows on the other hand ran closer to normal; the average
nighttime low ran only about 0.5 degrees F warmer than normal. While
the first freeze on the refuge came on the 8th and a new daily low
record temperature was set on the 16th, the average night-time
temperature for all the met stations did not drop below freezing
during October.

    October Record Temperatures - High 34.1 (93.3 F), Low -14.8 (5.4 F)
    October Record Temperatures - High 34.1 (93.3 F), Low -14.8 (5.4 F)

On average, October is the 4th wettest month of the year on the refuge
with almost an inch being the ex[ected average. This year the refuge
got only about half of that @ 12.2 mm. Virtually all of the moisture
came early in the month, on the 4th and 5th, with a little more on the
13th. This keeps the refuge just a little above average for the
calendar year.

October Meteorological Summary

                     October     October '17        October '17
Variable             Long-term* Mean    Mean           Mean Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Max Temp (C)         22.53           23.7         21.1 - 24.6
Mean Min Temp (C)          5.93            6.0          2.8 - 7.6
Mean Average Temp (C)     14.23           14.9         13.8 - 15.5
Mean R.H. (%)             42.4            40.7         37,1 - 45.3
Mean Vap Press. (mb)       6.45            6.77        6.30 - 7.31
Mean Max Wind (m/sec)      8.9             8.8          9.4 - 10.3
Mean Solar Rad. (kWh/m2)   4.88            5.40        4,97 - 5.72
Precip.(mm)                22.5           12.2          1.3 - 43.7
---------------------------------------------------------------------
*Long-term refers to all of the Sevilleta met stations for 1989-2016

Albuquerque - Sevilleta Comparison

Albuquerque received 0.5 mm of rain on Oct 4th and 0.5 mm again on the
5th for a total of 1.0 mm for the month. This was good news for the
Albuquerque Balloon Fiesta which saw mass ascensions on all except for
1 day.

               Loc         Precip          Normal         % of Normal
=====================================================================
October		ABQ 	   1.0 mm         25.9 mm            4 %
                SEV       12.2 mm         22.5 mm           54 %

Year to Date    ABQ       161.3 mm        212.9 mm           76 %
                SEV       260.1 mm        211.8 mm          122 %
=====================================================================
Remember to check National Weather Service Monthly highlights at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/climate/Monthlyreports/October/OCT2017/October2017.htm

Water-year Precipitation

The Sevilleta finally experienced a water year that was above average
- first time since 2009-10. This was the wettest water year since
2000-01 which also had exactly 293 mm. Curiously there have been
several water years with totals right around 290 mm e.g. 1989-90 (286
mm), 2003-04 (292 mm), 2004-05 (289 mm) 2006-07 (291 mm). The wettest
water year on the Sevilleta during the 29-year LTER tenure was 1996-97 with
400 mm.


     Water Year Precipitation (mm)

                           Non-
Water Yr  Total Monsoon  Monsoon
-------   ----  -------  -------
1988-89    128   93.3      34.7
1989-90    286  155.7     130.3
1990-91    254  176.0      78.0
1991-92    372  147.7     224.3
1992-93    235  146.8      88.2
1993-94    246  147.5      98.5
1994-95    225   91.5     133.5
1995-96    218  192.6      25.4
1996-97    400  266.8     133.0
1997-98    260  136.0     124.0
1998-99    278  184.4      93.6
1999-00    194  105.1      88.5
2000-01    293  114.4     179.1
2001-02    245  188.0      57.1
2002-03    149   81.8      67.0
2003-04    292  123.8     168.6
2004-05    289   95.9     192.9
2005-06    256  226.2      29.8
2006-07    291  109.2     181.6
2007-08    210  146.2      63.5
2008-09    194  101.9      92.3
2009-10    263  130.9     132.4
2010-11    106   75.2      30.5
2011-12    187   83.5     103.2
2012-13    234  208.0      25.7
2013-14    188  151.8      36.2
2014-15	   206   89.0     116.6
2015-16	   225   89.9     134.7
2016-17    293  143.0     150.4
-------------------------------
Mean       242  138.0     103.9
St.Dev.    63.5  47.8      54.9 
C.V.       26.3  34.6      52.8

Drought

The dry October has found drier conditions backing into the state
from the west.

ENSO

Models are predicting that a weak La Nina will develop for the winter
and spring of this year. The Sea Surface Temperature anomaly for the
key 3.4 Nino zone has continued to drop and ended the month at -0.5
Ocean Nino Index (ONI) for the Aug-Sep-Oct period was -0.4

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) went +0.6 in September to +0.9 for Oct
so that the 5-month is at +0.48 - just at the border of La Nina.

November Forecast

With the apparent move toward La Nina,it is not surprising that
November is predicted to be both much warmer and much drier than
normal.

D.M.

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