June 2018 Met Central - Wetter Than Normal Thanks to Hurricane Bud

June typically has the hottest average daily high temperatures with
the last ten days of the month usually being the hottest. Lower
humidity prior to the onset of the monsoons usually means lower
nighttime lows so that the average daytime temperatures run lower than
July on average. This year generally ran according to that format.

The June daytime high temperatures
ran above average on all except 5 days... 3 of these
being associated with the rain-days. There were 2 new daily high
temperature records set during June. These records and 4 other days
were over 100 degrees F. This was the 5th warmest June on the Sevilleta in
the LTER 29-year history... following 2013, 1990, 1994 and last year,
2017.

    June Record Temperatures - High 43.0 (109.4 F), Low 0.4 (32.7 F)
    June '18 Record Temperatures - High 40.0 (104 F), Low 5.4 (41.7 F)

June was the wettest month so far this year. June precipitation
consisted of one very small storm on the 3rd, a few little spitters
toward the middle of the month and then one very big storm on the
16th. This storm carried moisture from Pacific Hurricane Bud into the
area and pushed the June total above that of a normal June. The 21.8
mm refuge-wide average was only the 7th wettest Jun in the 29-year Sev
LTER record... far behind the 1996 64.9 mm average.

June Meteorological Summary

 
                          June        June '18           June '18
Variable            Long-term* Mean    Mean           Mean Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Max Temp (C)         33.18            34.6         32.1 - 35.6
Mean Min Temp (C)         15.28            17.1         13.3 - 19.4
Mean Average Temp (C)     24.23            25.8         24.3 - 27.5
Mean R.H. (%)              24.1            20.8         20.0 - 22.7
Mean Vap Press. (mb)        6.72            6.27        6.02 - 6.47
Mean Max Wind (m/sec)      11.8            10.8          9.1 - 11.0
Mean Solar Rad. (kWh/m2)   8.19            8.57         7.89 - 9.15
Precip.(mm)                14.1            21.8         18.4 - 28.4
---------------------------------------------------------------------
*Long-term refers to all of the Sevilleta met stations for 1989-2016

Albuquerque - Sevilleta Comparison

Albuquerque's Sunport gauge ended up seeing more precipitation than
the refuge-wide average for June. This was primarily due to the much
larger amount that Albuquerque got from the storm early in the
month. This brought both sites back up closer to normal for the
calendar year.

This June became the 9th warmest June in Albuquerque's 1893-present
record. Warmest was a tie between 1994 and 2012. 2013(4th),
2016(5th), 2002(6th), 1990(7th) and 2017(10th), all in the top 10
warmest Junes during the 1989-present LTER tenure.

               Loc         Precip          Normal         % of Normal
=====================================================================
June		ABQ 	   35.6 mm         16.8 mm          212 %
                SEV        21.8 mm         14.1 mm          155 %

Year to Date    ABQ        57.0 mm         81.3 mm           70 %
                SEV        51.8 mm         67.5 mm           77 %
=====================================================================
Remember to check National Weather Service Monthly highlights at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/climate/Monthlyreports/June/JJA2018/June2018.htm

Water-year Precipitation

June precipitation gets the Sev off to a quick start to the monsoons
and certainly helps reduce the accumulated water-year deficit that is
still only 55% of normal.

     Water Year Precipitation (mm)

               1989-2017
Month           Mean            2017-2018    
===========================================
Oct             22.5              12.2 
Nov             12.4               0.0
Dec		14.3		   0.0
Jan 		 8.9		   2.6
Feb		 7.5		  12.3
Mar		12.8		  10.1
Apr             11.9   		   0.1
May   		13.2		   5.9
Jun             14.1		  21.8
===========================================
               116.7		  65.0     


Drought

June rains seem to have kept the drought in NM from getting much worse.

The U.S. Drought Monitor
dropped all percentages of state in the
various drought severity categories by a couple of percents so that now 95.8%
of NM is under some drought status with 86.6% being under severe
drought conditions, and 58% being under extreme drought(including Sev)
and 18% still under exceptional drought conditions.


The Palmer Drought Severity Index
time series shows a corresponding slight drop in drought
severity for the Mid Rio Grande climate district.

ENSO

El Nino seems to be on the horizon. Sea surface temperature anomalies
in the key Nino 3.4 zone continued to warm and ended June at +0.4. The
Nino Index for Apr-May-Jun was -0.14. The Climate Prediction Center
is giving the chances of evolution into El Nino next winter as
almost 65%.

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dropped down into the negative
range, -0.1 for June. The 5-month running mean was +.36... down from
+.60 in May

Notables From On and Off the Sev

State-wide this was the second warmest June (daily average
temperature) in the 124 year long-term record.

This was also the number one warmest Jan-Jun period for the state.

June was a busy month for fires in NM with probably little relief in
sight till monsoon moisture arrives. The good news is that most of them
had been pretty well contained by the end of the month with little
propery loss. The bad news is that a big outbreak of new big fires in
other western states around the end of June threatened or consumed
numerous homes

July Forecast

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts a warmer than normal
July but is giving above normal chances of above normal
precipitation for the western half of the state.