January 2011- January was dry but cooler than might be expected during a La Nina, mostly thanks to the New Years cold snap

February 4, 2011

January was fairly typical for a La Nina January. There was little January moisture across the state and most of it hit northern New Mexico. The Sevilleta saw virtually nothing. Cerro Montoso got a few tips early in the month and a couple of other stations got a few tips on the 31st. This is only the 2nd driest January in our 1989-present record; the driest January was 2003 which was a weak El Nino. Precipitation was 0.0 mm.

January really started out in the deep freeze. The morning of the first tied the record coldest January temperature in the Sev's 22 year history. Temperatures stayed on the cool side for much of the early part of the month with a warm-up mid-month with an excursion down into cooler temperatures followed by another warm-up towards the end of the month.

Average daily maximums and average daily minimums ran below normal for the month. Six new daily minimum temperature records were set during January.

January Record Temperatures - High 24.1 (74.1 F), Low -19.7 (-3.5 F)
January '11 Record Temperatures* - High 19.2 (66.6 F), Low -19.7 (-3.5 F)
* Tied old record

For NM as a whole this January was the 54th coolest out of the past 117 years (with 1 be coolest and 117 warmest).

This was the number 1 driest January in NM's 117 year long-term record.

January Meteorological Summary

                       January       January '11      January '11
Variable             Long-term* Mean    Mean           Mean Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Max Temp (C)         10.47          9.7           7.0 - 10.7
Mean Min Temp (C)         -4.82        - 7.5         -12.1 - -0.7
Mean Average Temp (C)      2.82          1.1          -0.7 - 2.4 
Mean R.H.  (%)            51.8          42.9          39.9 - 47.2
Mean Vap Press. (mb)       3.69          2.74         2.55 - 2.84
Mean Max Wind (m/sec)      7.8           7.9           7.3 - 9.5
Mean Solar Rad. (kWh/m2)   3.41          3.84         3.55 - 4.07
Precip.(mm)                8.4           0.1           0.0 - 0.3
---------------------------------------------------------------------
*Long-term refers to all of the Sevilleta met stations for 1989-2010

Albuquerque - Sevilleta Comparison

The only measurable precipitation at the ABQ airport in January came on the 31st although there had been trace amounts recorded on the 4th and 24th.

Unlike the Sev, Albuquerque's average daily maximum and minimum temperatures ran above normal.

                Loc     Precip          Normal       % of Normal
=====================================================================
January         ABQ       1.8 mm        12.4 mm           11 %
                SEV       0.1 mm         8.4 mm            1 %

Year to Date    ABQ       1.8 mm        12.4 mm           11 %
                SEV       0.1 mm         8.4 mm            1 %
====================================================================
Remember to check National Weather Service Monthly highlights at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/climate/Monthlyreports/January/2011/index.php

Water year Precipitation

Someone put the lid on Socooro's rain gauge. From October to January Socorro had only gotten 4.8 mm (0.19") of rain,  less than 10% of normal.

The Sevilleta is better but only because of precipitation last October. The Sevilleta is at just below 50% of normal.

                1989-2010
Month           Mean            2009-2011    
===========================================
Oct 10          22.7              23.2       
Nov 10          13.3               0.4  
Dec 10          13.4               5.0
Jan 11           8.4               0.1
==========================================
Total           57.8              28.7

Drought

The U.S. Drought Monitor has increased the amount of New Mexico that is now under drought or abnormally dry conditions to almost 95% of the state. However the Palmer Drought Index shows all of the state in normal conditions.

La Nina

La Nina continues to remain strong. The sea surface temperature anomaly in the Nino 3.4 zone was -1.7 as of the end of January.

Notables from on and off the Sev

Tumble weeds continued to roam across McKenzie Flats, causing problems with warming shelters.

There has been extreme flooding around the world in January. Floods continue in Australia. There are also deadly floods in Brazil, Sri Lanka, Philippines and South Africa.

Huge snowfalls continue in the Northeastern United States.

February Forecast

Despite our current cool excursion, NOAA has forecasted February to have above average chances of being both warmer and drier than normal.

D.M.