July 2012: Met Central Report - Another Dry July

August 6, 2012

Despite the relatively early start to the monsoon, July ultimately turned out to be a bit of a disappointment for much of New Mexico. Some areas of the state did fairly well while many areas, not so much. Likewise, some portions of the Sevilleta got above normal precipitation while the majority did not. Most of the Sevilleta rain came in the first 10 days of the month with only the 18th and and 22nd having much precipitation during the rest of the month.

The up-side to the July moisture was that it generally moderated temperatures. While much of the middle and eastern part of the country had sweltering temperatures, NM temperatures ran generally close to their normal range. For the Sev, average daily highs ran ever-so-slightly below normal while average nighttime lows were about the same amount warmer than average so that the mean daily average temperature was almost exactly normal. July 1 was the only day that broke the 100 degree mark while July 31 was the 2nd hottest day with a 99 degree reading.

July Record Temperatures - High 41.4 (109.4 F), Low 5.4 (41.7 F)
July '12 Record Temperatures - High 38.0 (100.4 F), Low 12.4 (54.3 F)

July Meteorological Summary

                         July         July '12          July '12
Variable             Long-term* Mean    Mean           Mean Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Max Temp (C)         33.32         33.1          30.6 - 34.3
Mean Min Temp (C)         17.50         17.8          15.7 - 19.1
Mean Average Temp (C)     25.41         25.5          23.1 - 26.7
Mean R.H. (%)             40.3          40.8          38.9 - 44.3
Mean Vap Press. (mb)      11.43         12.06        11.34 - 12.77
Mean Max Wind (m/sec)     11.1          10.8           8.7 - 12.0
Mean Solar Rad. (kWh/m2)   7.27          7.76         7.50 - 8.41
Precip.(mm)               44.0          30.8          10.1 - 69.0
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*Long-term refers to all of the Sevilleta met stations for 1989-2011

Albuquerque - Sevilleta Comparison

Albuquerque, with 22.6 mm (0.89"), came in at only about 60% of average. The airport gauge was probably not the best measure of precipitation across the entire Albuquerque metro area. Reports from other parts of the city showed much bigger amounts on many of the days that the airport reported trace amounts or nothing. The disappointing fact was that my garden only saw less than half of what the airport gauge reported - 10.6 mm.

                Loc       Precip           Normal        % of Normal
=====================================================================
July            ABQ       22.6 mm         38.1 mm            59 %
                SEV       30.8 mm         44.0 mm            69 %

Year to Date    ABQ       80.6 mm        119.4 mm            68 %
                SEV       70.1 mm        116.8 mm            60 %
=====================================================================
Remember to check National Weather Service Monthly highlights at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/climate/Monthlyreports/May/2012/index.php

Water-year Precipitation

July precipitation ran surprisingly close to what July ran last year. The refuge-wide average is now at 82 % of normal... This is much better than last year.

               1989-2010
Month           Mean            2011-2012    2010-2011
======================================================
Oct 11          24.2              20.4          20.2
Nov 11          12.2               3.6           0.4
Dec 11          13.0              42.5           5.0
Jan 12           8.0               8.0           0.1
Feb 12           8.6               1.2           0.8
Mar 12          15.1               1.8           0.6
Apr 12          12.0              21.0           0.2
May 12          13.2               4.3           0.2
Jul 12          44.0              30.8           32.9
========================================================
Total          166.2             136.6           66.8

Drought

Drought in NM is not getting much better but it is also not getting much worse... contrary to the situation in the central part of the U.S.

The most recent Palmer Drought Index shows the Central Valley as well as the southwestern part of NM in a non-drought status

ENSO

ENSO indicators seem to be the epitomy of neutral. While Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are in the El Nino range, The Ocean Nino Index (ONI) is 0.0 for the May-Jun-July period. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was 0.0 for July and the 5-month running mean was also 0.0 although dropping since last month.

Notables from on and off the Sev

Vegetation on McKenzie Flats responded very quickly to early July precipitation 2009. The area near Deep Well is the lushest while other areas greened up but are losing that bright green now. The area around Deep Well also has a lot of yellow flowers, particularly on the 2009 burn area - Lots of Lesquerella fendleri, Machaeranthera pinnatifida subsp._pinnatifida and Hymenopappus filifolius var._cinereus.

Lightning caused a fire on Nunn Flats on July 2 - only burned a few hectares.

Monsoons officially began on July 5 at about 1500 hrs. It has primarily been concentrated on Mckenzie Flats area while rest of refuge is still waiting. Monsoon moisture on some of the burn scars caused damaging floods.

Early Monsoon moisture either as precipitation or as elevated dew point temperatures helped to almost shut down the fires raging across much of the southwest.

Extreme high temperatures across central and eastern U.S. thousands of daily records broken.

Hurricanes

No tropical storms in the Atlantic in July. This is not too unusually quiet for July - except that the season started with a June and even a May that each had above normal activity.

July Forecast

For the second month in a row NOAA is giving portions of NM (and AZ) above average chances of above normal precipitation. NM is also predicted to have increased chances of higher than normal temperatures.

Storms have been roaming the state early in August but the monsoon moisture has spent much of its time over Arizona.

D.M.