June 2012 - We should hope that July will be cooler and much wetter

July 3, 2012

No relief - June started hot... and stayed hot and ended with the hottest day of the year so far. There have been hotter Junes but not many. Actually this was the hottest coolest June that has been recorded on the Sevilleta in the 1989-2012 Sev LTER tenure. That is, it was the highest mean night time lows (16.8 C - 62 F). However the average daily highs (95.4 F) and the mean daily temperatures (78.8 F) came in slightly below the 1994 records in these 2 categories - 96.3 and 79.2 F respectively. The 100 degree mark was hit or surpassed on 6 days. The surprising thing was that no daily records were broken during the month.

June Record Temperatures - High 43 (109.4 F), Low 0.4 (32.7 F)
June '12 Record Temperatures - High 39.7 (103.5 F), Low 7.1 (44.8 F)

The refuge got teased by moisture on a couple of days. A storm on the 4th splattered a few of the stations. A storm on the 21st seems to have been centered over the Deep Well area while the south and the west side received little or nothing. The refuge-wide average of 3.0 mm (0.12") makes it the 5th driest Jun in the 1989-2012 record.

On a state-wide basis this was the 4th warmest June in New Mexico's 118 year record and the 7th driest.

June Meteorological Summary

                         June         June '12          June '12
Variable             Long-term* Mean    Mean           Mean Range
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Mean Max Temp (C)         32.84         35.2          32.7 - 36.3
Mean Min Temp (C)         14.97         16.8          13.4 - 19.1
Mean Average Temp (C)     23.90         26.0          24.7 - 27.6
Mean R.H. (%)             24.3          16.6          15.5 - 18.5
Mean Vap Press. (mb)       6.61          5.45         5.19 - 5.64
Mean Max Wind (m/sec)     11.9          11.4           9.9 - 13.4
Mean Solar Rad. (kWh/m2)   8.10          9.01         8.34 - 9.60
Precip.(mm)               15.9           3.0           0.0 - 10.9
---------------------------------------------------------------------
*Long-term refers to all of the Sevilleta met stations for 1989-2011

Albuquerque - Sevilleta Comparison

A localized storm on the 22nd over the airport gauge and Isotope Park made it look like ABQ did better than it actually did. We should remember that last year at this time ABQ had gotten only a total of 4.9 mm (0.19") for the first 6 months of the year. Albuquerque came in tied with 1994 as the hottest June in Albuquerque's 1895-present record.

                   Loc       Precip           Normal        % of Normal
=====================================================================
June               ABQ       10.7 mm         16.8 mm            64 %
                   SEV        3.0 mm         15.9 mm            19 %

Year to Date       ABQ       58.0 mm         81.3 mm            71 %
                   SEV       39.3 mm         72.8 mm            54 %
====================================================================
Remember to check National Weather Service Monthly highlights at:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/climate/Monthlyreports/May/2012/index.php

Water-year Precipitation

The water year total has slipped back to only about 85% of normal. This is still just about 3 times what we had seen last year at this time.

               1989-2010
Month           Mean            2011-2012    2010-2011
=========================================================
Oct 11          24.2              20.4          20.2
Nov 11          12.2               3.6           0.4
Dec 11          13.0              42.5           5.0
Jan 12           8.0               8.0           0.1
Feb 12           8.6               1.2           0.8
Mar 12          15.1               1.8           0.6
Apr 12          12.0              21.0           0.2
May 12          13.2               4.3           0.2
========================================================
Total          122.2             105.8          33.9

Drought

Continues to re-strengthen. The only good news is that less of NM is in the Severe to Extreme drought categories than was the case last year at this time.

ENSO

Chances of transition into El Niño is now said to be at 50/50. The SST anomalies for the Niño 3.4 zone is +0.6 - >+0.5 is considered start of El Niño. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is also headed toward El Niño territory. The SOI went from 0.0 in May to -0.4 in June. The 5-month running mean dropped from +0.40 to +0.10.

Notables from on and off the Sev

Vegetation is looking pretty dry. NM fires are still burning but largest the Whitewater-baldy Complex is contained after burning almost 300,000 acres. Most others are generally contained.

CO stole the news coverage with 2 large, quick moving fires near Fort Collins and Colorado Springs that burned through hundreds of homes at each location.

Heat wave swept through Eastern CO at the same time as the fires and then swept across the country.

A strong storm termed a Derecho originated in the Chicago area early Fri and swept across Indiana, Ohio, W. Virginia and finally on through the D.C. Maryland area Friday night (29th). The strong straight line winds associated with this storm toppled trees and power lines leaving millions without power over the following weekend when record high temperatures were adding to the misery.

Hurricanes

Tropical storm activity, while minimal, was quite active for June. Hurricane Chris barely reached hurricane strength and then just wandered around in the Atlantic for a few days. Tropical Storm Debby was a very big rain-maker over FL. When it first formed in the Gulf there was a time when wish-casting brought it west across the Gulf and into southern Texas with a continuation of rain into NM. Only 180 degrees off. Some places in FL got 2 years of our precipitation in less than a week.

July Forecast

Not surprisingly July is predicted to be warmer than normal. However, surprisingly NOAA is giving greater than normal chances of July being wetter than normal for 2/3 of western NM. This might be a little optimistic.

D.M.