September 2012: Met Central Report -Temperatures and Precipitation Closer to Normal
Submitted by dmoore on Fri, 10/05/2012 - 10:11am
The refuge-wide precipitation average of 32.7 mm (1.29") makes it the wettest month on the Sevilleta this calendar year. However, This still fell below the normal expected, September precipitation of 34.2 mm. The localized monster storm on Sep 6th that dropped 44 mm (1.73") at the Cerro Montoso met station certainly skews that average to the high side. This means that other areas of the Sevilleta saw much less than the 32.7 mm. A wider ranging and longer lasting rainfall on the 13th was much more beneficial for the vegetation across the refuge.
With regards to temperatures, the first week of September was a continuation of our hot August. Temperatures ran at or above the record highs - 3 new daily highs set. Temperatures then took a couple of rapid dips as back-door cold fronts brought some temperature relief as well as some rain. A subsequent drying trend brought temperatures back up to or above normal for a little over a week with just about normal temperatures finishing off the month. Daily highs, daily lows and daily averages were the closest to normal that we have seen since back in February. Despite having a total of 4 daily high temperature records broken during the month, daily highs ran every so slightly below normal.
- September Record Temperatures - High 37.6 (99.7 F), Low -3.3 (26.1 F)
- September '12 Record Temperatures - High 36.0 (96.8 F), Low 3.4 (38.1 F)
September Meteorological Summary
September September '12 September '12 Variable Long-term* Mean Mean Mean Range ------------------------------------------------------------------- Mean Max Temp (C) 28.51 28.4 25.6 - 29.4 Mean Min Temp (C) 12.53 12.8 10.9 - 14.2 Mean Average Temp (C) 20.52 20.6 18.6 - 21.8 Mean R.H. (%) 43.3 40.3 30.8 - 43.2 Mean Vap Press. (mb) 9.55 8.82 8.32 - 9.09 Mean Max Wind (m/sec) 9.4 9.2 8.2 - 9.7 Mean Solar Rad. (kWh/m2) 5.95 5.91 5.62 - 6.12 Precip.(mm) 34.2 32.7 16.2 - 69.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------- *Long-term refers to all of the Sevilleta met stations for 1989-2011
Albuquerque - Sevilleta Comparison
Albuquerque did not do as well in September as it did in August. It also did not do nearly as well as most of the Sevilleta. Albuquerque and the Sev are running just about the same for the year-to date. This is still well below normal.
Loc Precip Normal % of Normal
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September ABQ 11.2 mm 27.4 mm 41 %
SEV 32.7 mm 34.2 mm 96 %
Year to Date ABQ 132.9 mm 186.9 mm 71 %
SEV 120.2 mm 194.6 mm 62 %
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Remember to check National Weather Service Monthly highlights at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/climate/Monthlyreports/September/2012/index.php
Water-year Precipitation
This is the end of another water year... not one of the best but decidedly better than last year which was the driest in our 24 year history - see table below. This makes it the 4th driest water year in Sev's LTER history beating out last year, 1988-89 (128 mm) and 2002-03 (149 mm).
The 2-year water year period from Oct, 2010 through Sep, 2012 were the driest consecutive years in New Mexico history.
1989-2010 Month Mean 2011-2012 2010-2011 ====================================================== Oct 11 24.2 20.4 20.2 Nov 11 12.2 3.6 0.4 Dec 11 13.0 42.5 5.0 Jan 12 8.0 8.0 0.1 Feb 12 8.6 1.2 0.8 Mar 12 15.1 1.8 0.6 Apr 12 12.0 21.0 0.2 May 12 13.2 4.3 0.2 Jul 12 44.0 30.8 32.9 Aug 12 43.6 17.4 20.0 Sep 12 34.2 32.7 18.9 ======================================================== Total 244.0 186.7 105.7
Monsoon
Reversal of who got rain between ALbuquerque and the Sev in September brought Albuquerque and the Sevilleta in with quite similar monsoon totals. Better than last year and actually better than 2003 as well. This still is not good news from a couple of different standpoints. First these were both La Nina years with the winter precipitation being well below normal as would be predicted but more important during our LTER history monsoons following La Nina winters have been as wet or even wetter than normal.
Albuquerque Sev Refuge Average Month 2012 Mean 2012 Mean ---------------------------------------------- Jun 10.7 16.8 3.0 15.9 Jul 22.6 38.1 30.8 44.0 Aug 41.1 40.1 17.4 43.6 Sep 11.2 27.4 32.3 34.2 ---------------------------------------------- Total 74.4 122.4 83.5 137.7
Drought
The drought is not budging very much in any direction. It is not as bad as it was a year ago at this time but finally as of this week a small sliver (0.27%) is no longer considered to be under drought status. The looming El Nino may improve that situation during the upcoming fall, winter and spring.
The end of the water year shows that the Butte ran a deficit again this year. The dam was closed early in September but there is very little that is reaching the reservoir these days. For the water year 674,000 acre-feet passed Otowi (near Los Alamos). At San Marciel the flow was 310,000 acre-feet but 373,000 acre-feet was discharged on down the river. This means a net loss of -63,000 acre-feet. This does not count evaporation off the lake. The level of the lake went from 201,000 acre-ft a year ago to 113,000 at this time. This is 5% of capacity and 9% of average. This is the lowest that the reservoir has been since 2004 - See Fig 1 .
ENSO
El Nino did not strengthen a lot during September... if any. It may actually be faltering. The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the Nino 3.4 zone at the end of Sep was +0.2 while it was +0.9 at the end of August. The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) is at +0.3 which is up from last months +0.1. Certainly nothing to get very excited about. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) went back up from -0.2 to +.02 but the 5-month running mean is still slightly negative at -0.08.
Notables from on and off the Sev
The early September precipitation certainly improved the greenness of the Sevilleta vegetation. It added some flowers as well.
Roads and washes on both sides of the pinos took a beating from the intense Sep 6th storm.
This one is Pino Road and this is the road/wash near the Cerro Montoso parking site .
Rain-out shelter towns for the EDGE project have sprouted recently. These are at the black grama site
Hurricanes
At the end of August Hurricane Isaac had lost tropical storm strength although it continued to dump inches of rain on up through the center of the country. At the same time hurricanes, Kirk, Leslie, Michael were still churning in the Atlantic. Leslie eventually made landfall in Newfoundland as a tropical storm. Michael is the only Atlantic storm to reach major hurricane level but only for a short time and in the middle of the Atlantic. Hurricane Nadine wandered up through the mid-Atlantic during a large part of September - actually very large part of it. Its 21.75 day life is the 5th longest-lived tropical storm since 1950.
October Forecast
NOAA was predicting above normal chances of above normal precipitation for the southern half of NM for October. However this has been revised and seems to indicate equal chances of above, below or normal precipitation for most of the state with the southwestern corner being predicted to be drier than normal. Above normal temperatures are forecasted for October for 3/4 of the state.
D.M.
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