MET Central

MetCentral - Febrary 2017 - Very Warm February with One Saving Storm

February temperatures
continued the warm trend that has been the case
through much of the winter. The month began with an 11-day warm spell
that included 4 new daily high temperature records. After a
precipitous drop for a couple of days, temperatures returned to near
or above normal for most of the rest of the month with 2 more daily
high temperature records falling. Ultimately average daily

MetCentral - January 2017 - Continuing Wet Winter

January continued the near record winter moisture regime that started
back in November. A mid-month storm delivered the big punch but a
storm at the beginning of the month a few smaller storms toward the
end of the month supplemented this major input. This resulted in almost a
near record wet January. Ultimately the Sevilleta saw an average of
33.9 mm across the refuge which is over 4 times the monthly expected
average (8.0 mm). This pushed Jan, 2017 into 2nd place in wet
January's... just ever so slightly behind the 34.3 mm of 2005.

December 2016 Met Central - Quite Good Moisture for a La Nina Year

Early December was mostly dry on the Sevilleta. Storms followed a
typical La Nina pattern with most of them going north of NM. Then
mid-month and again just before Christmas there were a couple of
warmer and wetter storms that rolled through the state giving the
Sevilleta a couple of good shots of moisture - mostly rain. This
provided the refuge with about its normal December precipitation.
Finally a storm on 31st delivered moisture that pushed the average up
by about half again above normal. This resulted in the 4th wettest

October 2016 - Met Central - New Record Warm October

started only a little warmer than normal, then went to much
warmer than normal and then finished the month with 10 days of record
or near record high temperatures. There were only 5 days with average
daily high temperatures below average. There were 8 new daily high
temperature records set during the month. The average daily high of
78.8 degrees F shattered the old record daytime high average of 77.1 F

November 2016 I - Bullseye

Just as I was trying to wrap up the October monthly Met Central report
something happened that was a bit of a distraction. November has
seldom been a very wet month on the Sevilleta. The long term average
for November for the 28-year LTER tenure is 11.1 mm. Back in 1991 the
refuge saw a total of 32.0 mm (1.26") and then in 1994 that so-called
record total was eclipsed by a 32.9 mm total. Since then the biggest
total was 28.5 in 2000.

September 2016 Met Central - Goldilocks Month

September on the Sev was pretty much a Goldilocks month
... not too hot and
not too cold but just right. Actually there was a stretch mid-month
that saw temperatures roll up into the 90's for a short stretch with
a couple of near misses on record highs but then temperatures dropped
back down into cooler ranges. In point of fact the only new daily
record was a new daily record low on the 24th but that was only

August 2016 -Met Central - Big Monsoon Rains... Only on Part of Sevilleta

August was a tale of 2 halves. The cooler end of July carried on into
August with temperatures running quite near normal for the first half
of the month. The second half of the month saw a further shift to
generally cooler than normal for the remainder of the month. Average
daily highs, average daily lows and average daily means all ran
considerably below normal. This August basically tied with 2004 as

July 2016 Met Central - Monsoon is Still Mostly a No-show

Early in July it looked like there might be an early start to the
monsoons. The first day of the month saw measurable moisture at all
of the met stations on the refuge with some stations getting up to 10
mm. However a big high pressure moved back in over the state to
basically shut off the flow of monsoon moisture for an extended
period of time. Some moisture returned after the 17th with some hit
and miss moisture at various places across the refuge. Finally a
storm on the 30th hit the northwestern portion of the refuge. But

2016 Monsoon Contest Predictions

Below are this years entries for the Monsoon Prediction Contest.
Predictions were submitted by 33 people. If you really think that you
submitted a guess and it is not on the list, please contact me
immediately ( - it could have gotten lost.
Yesterday, June 26 and July 10 tied as the most popular choices this year
with 3 selections each.

Good Luck to all


2016 Monsoon Contest

I have decided to continue the Monsoon Prediction Contest for at least
another year. Even though the National Weather Service (NWS) declares
June 15th to be the official start of the Monsoon season, the true
start of monsoon level precipitation in this area can be extremely
variable. It typically starts sometime in late June or early July and
extends into September. There are numerous criteria for what
constitutes the start of the monsoon season but my experience has
shown that a pretty sizable shot of moisture over a 1 or 2 day period


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