Just as I was trying to wrap up the October monthly Met Central report
something happened that was a bit of a distraction. November has
seldom been a very wet month on the Sevilleta. The long term average
for November for the 28-year LTER tenure is 11.1 mm. Back in 1991 the
refuge saw a total of 32.0 mm (1.26") and then in 1994 that so-called
record total was eclipsed by a 32.9 mm total. Since then the biggest
total was 28.5 in 2000.
September on the Sev was pretty much a Goldilocks month... not too hot and
not too cold but just right. Actually there was a stretch mid-month
that saw temperatures roll up into the 90's for a short stretch with
a couple of near misses on record highs but then temperatures dropped
back down into cooler ranges. In point of fact the only new daily
record was a new daily record low on the 24th but that was only
August was a tale of 2 halves. The cooler end of July carried on into
August with temperatures running quite near normal for the first half
of the month. The second half of the month saw a further shift to
generally cooler than normal for the remainder of the month. Average
daily highs, average daily lows and average daily means all ran
considerably below normal. This August basically tied with 2004 as
Early in July it looked like there might be an early start to the
monsoons. The first day of the month saw measurable moisture at all
of the met stations on the refuge with some stations getting up to 10
mm. However a big high pressure moved back in over the state to
basically shut off the flow of monsoon moisture for an extended
period of time. Some moisture returned after the 17th with some hit
and miss moisture at various places across the refuge. Finally a
storm on the 30th hit the northwestern portion of the refuge. But
Below are this years entries for the Monsoon Prediction Contest.
Predictions were submitted by 33 people. If you really think that you
submitted a guess and it is not on the list, please contact me
immediately (email@example.com) - it could have gotten lost.
Yesterday, June 26 and July 10 tied as the most popular choices this year
with 3 selections each.
Good Luck to all
I have decided to continue the Monsoon Prediction Contest for at least
another year. Even though the National Weather Service (NWS) declares
June 15th to be the official start of the Monsoon season, the true
start of monsoon level precipitation in this area can be extremely
variable. It typically starts sometime in late June or early July and
extends into September. There are numerous criteria for what
constitutes the start of the monsoon season but my experience has
shown that a pretty sizable shot of moisture over a 1 or 2 day period
New Sevilleta records in May. Coolest average daily low
temperature in Sevilleta's 28 year record. Average lows were 46.6 F -
long term average is 50 F. There were 5 days with new record daily low
temperatures. Believe it or not last May was the second coolest on
record. Daytime highs were not all that warm either. The maximum
daily high on the refuge during this May was only 88.9 degrees
If we thought February was a poor example of a strong El Nino
February, March was even more underwhelming - driest March in the NM
long-term record. March's are typically wetter than February's and in
certain cases very much wetter. For example the wettest March in
Albuquerque's long term record was 1998... the last super El Nino.
Not only was March entirely dry across the Sevilleta, the last
precipitation on all of the met stations on the Sev was back on Feb
1st. Since the end of March that was 59 days with virtually no moisture
The cold end of 2015 carried over into the start of 2016. The Sevilleta started 2016 with a 2-week stretch of cold - high temperatures never reached average until the 14th. High temperatures then spent much of the rest of January above average with 2 of the last 3 days of the month breaking daytime records. Ultimately, mean daytime highs averaged over 1 degree C below average while night time lows came in almost exactly average. Daily means were about a half a degree C cooler than average.
Beginning at the largest scale, 2015 set a new global high temperature record- actually shattering the previous 2014 record.